- Titel
- Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agriculture: Hydro-Economic Modeling of Irrigation Water Demand and Policy Trade-Offs in Germany
- Zitierfähige Url:
- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa2-1058265
- Datum der Einreichung
- 06.11.2025
- Datum der Verteidigung
- 16.06.2026
- Abstract (EN)
- Climate change poses increasing challenges to agricultural production worldwide, as rising temperatures and more frequent droughts threaten crop yields and cause substantial economic damages. In Germany, future adaptation to these pressures may entail a shift from the predominantly rainfed field crop production toward irrigated agriculture. However, such a transformation would intensify competition for water resources and risk groundwater depletion, particularly in already water scarce regions. These developments unfold within a complex policy landscape shaped by competing objectives across the agricultural, energy, and water sectors. Understanding how climate change affects crop yields, how farmers adjust their land use and irrigation behavior under climatic and socioeconomic pressures, and how sectoral policies influence these adaptations is essential for developing strategies that promote sustainable water use. This dissertation addresses these challenges through three interlinked modeling studies. The first study applies a machine learning approach using LASSO regression to quantify the effects of nine types of extreme weather events on the yields of eight major field crops in Germany and to project yield changes under different climate scenarios. Building on these projections, the second study integrates the results with a hydro-economic multi-agent system (MAS) model in a hybrid modeling framework. This MAS model simulates adaptive land use and irrigation decisions of farmers under climatic and socioeconomic change, projecting irrigation water demand for field crops until the end of the 21st century. The third study extends this framework toward an ex-ante policy assessment, evaluating the effects of six different policies, ranging from water pricing and abstraction limits to bioenergy subsidies, on irrigation demand and trade-offs within the Food–Water–Energy (FWE) nexus. The results show that drought and heat extremes will increasingly reduce yields of summer crops, raising the need for irrigation. Under high-emission and high-price scenarios, irrigation demand is projected to increase eightfold by the end of the century, with regional demands exceeding sustainable recharge levels. Early implementation of water sector policies such as pricing or abstraction limits can effectively curb these increases and prevent such a “lock-in” to unsustainable irrigation practices—the so-called irrigation trap. Methodologically, the thesis advances the integration of machine learning, process-based, and hydro-economic modeling, improving the empirical validity and spatial representation of agricultural decision-making. The findings underscore the urgency of proactive, cross-sectoral policy action to ensure resilient agricultural and water systems under climate change.
- Freie Schlagwörter (EN)
- Climate change, Agriculture, Multi-agent system, Food-Water-Energy Nexus, Policy
- Klassifikation (DDC)
- 330
- Den akademischen Grad verleihende / prüfende Institution
- Universität Leipzig, Leipzig
- Version / Begutachtungsstatus
- angenommene Version / Postprint / Autorenversion
- URN Qucosa
- urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa2-1058265
- Veröffentlichungsdatum Qucosa
- 07.07.2026
- Dokumenttyp
- Dissertation
- Sprache des Dokumentes
- Englisch
- Lizenz / Rechtehinweis
CC BY 4.0